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Monday, September 07, 2015

Ingredients for Predicting Future

Following are the ingredients for predicting future trends. But don't be fooled by randomness. Even when you got all (some) of the following ingredients, your predictions would remain only predictions. Reality or actual future events may be different. So, a model you might design may not necessarily be a perfect model. As some quant once said, all models are not perfect, some models predict better than others. So believe in yourself and be ready to adjust your models if the trends change or new things emerge in the market. Good luck!

1. Best and the Brightest
Hunt out the best mathematicians, scientists, finance, quantitative and computer experts to design the best models and trading systems.

2. Data
Both the data sample period and varied data related to various elements depending upon the nature of model, for example weather, social media, news and other real world (financial and non-financial) data sets.

3. Computing Power
A huge power required to find correlations or patterns in the data. So one would need to build large distributed computing systems to find correlations and patters quickly.

4. High-end Mathematics
Latest trends in mathematics to find new ways of extracting patterns.

5. Trading Optimization
To be successful quant trader, the real task is to find a way to optimize trading ideas using big data.

Sunday, September 06, 2015

Advice to his son by Imam Ahmed (Rahimullah)

How one of our pious predecessors interacted with an ayah from the Quran. This is a story about Imam Ahmed (Rahimullah) the way he dealt with a man who was interrupting his halaka, cursing him, trying to get him to respond in a like manner and Imam Ahmed (Rahimullah) took the high road. Imagine a man walking into halaka and starts insulting, but let's not forget that Imam Ahmed (Rahimullah) was tortured for his great portion of his adult life. He was tortured in ways that many of us today can not even imagine. All of his skin was taken off from his back, was flogged and was attempted to be killed. But Imam Ahmed (Rahimullah), by the grace of Allah, eventually came out of that and entire Muslim world at that time sided with him against his oppressors, and his last a few years were peaceful and calm. All of these people who used to torture him in his prison, guards and people who cursed him and so on, constantly used to come to him and seek his forgiveness. Saleh, the son of Imam Ahmed (Rahimullah) says that his father forgave each and every single person who tortured him. SubhanAllah! Each and every single time, a person came to him and said, 'I used to beat you.', and would be full of tears, and then ask him, 'please forgive me'. On that, Imam Ahmed (Rahimullah) will just forgive them. Anytime, if someone came and said we back-bited you, Imam Ahmed (Rahimullah) would forgive them. Saleh says that I asked my father, 'What about those who died before they could seek your forgiveness?' Imam Ahmed (Rahimullah) said, 'I have forgiven each and every single deceased person for the beatings that they used to inflict upon me'. So Saleh said, 'I understand when people come to you and seek forgiveness from you, you should forgive. But those people never even sought forgiveness from you.' Imam Ahmed (Rahimullah) said, 'Listen O my son!, Allah SWT says in Surah Ash-Shuraa (42) Ayat (40): 

42:40
Sahih International
'And the retribution for an evil act is an evil one like it, but whoever pardons and makes reconciliation - his reward is [due] from Allah . Indeed, He does not like wrongdoers.'

'Whoever forgives and pardons, his reward is upon Allah SWT'.

He said, 'When I came across this ayah, I came across a narration from Imam Hasan al-Basri (Rahimullah). Imam Hasan al-Basri (Rahimullah) narrates, 'When the day of judgement comes, all of the Ummahs, all of the nations will be on their knees in front of Allah SWT. Allah will say, "Don't stand up, unless I owe you some 'ajar'." No one would stand except for those that used to forgive in part in this world.'. 

Imam Ahmed (Rahimullah) said, 'I want to be one of those people who stand up when everyone is on their knees.' He says, 'I have forgiven all of those people who have died for what they did to me.' He further says, 'What is upon a man is to make sure that Allah will not punish anyone on the day of judgement because of him.'

SubhanaAllah. Look at the heart of gold. Usually a person that is subjected to that much torture, in terms of solitary confinement and torture for over a decade. Usually a person like that will be bitter. Look at the heart of gold of Imam Ahmed (Rahimullah). He is telling his son, what you want on the day of judgement is that no one is going to be punished on your behalf. You do not want Allah SWT to punish anyone on your behalf. In fact you want to be one of those people who stands up and Allah SWT gives the special reward. 

We ask Allah SWT to give us those big hearts and to allow us to forgive and pardon. Ameen. Even when people do not seek forgiveness we should ask Allah SWT to allow us to do that may be not because they would deserve it but because we want the mercy of Allah SWT.

(Taken from the lecture/video of Sheikh Omar Suleiman).

Sunday, August 30, 2015

Good Conduct: Quran and Hadith


When a man asked the Prophet SAW about good conduct, he recited the following verse (Quran 7:199)
خُذِ الۡعَفۡوَ وَاۡمُرۡ بِالۡعُرۡفِ وَاَعۡرِضۡ عَنِ الۡجٰهِلِيۡنَ‏
"Take to pardon, enjoin good and keep away from the illiterate." (Quran 7:199).

Tuesday, August 25, 2015

Rizq in light of the Holy Quran and Hadith


Dear friends,

In shaa Allah, in this article, I would try to address an important topic that concerns everyone in our daily life - RIZQ. Today, we live in an age that is dominated by love for money, infatuation with wealth, and fear and anxiety for the provision. The most widely talked about topic in the media, at the gatherings in tea/coffee shops, at the dinner tables at home and in restaurants, and in public places is Money. One measures happiness and aspiration in terms of the economic goals he can achieve. It is a common goal of the education system from school education to the university level of education to groom the students for careers. Students are taught that the most important thing that matters for seeking education is the future employment. People neither see the universities as the centers of scholarship nor attend the universities to seek knowledge. They only seek degrees that help them better their job prospects. The focus of the whole society is economics/money. It would not be wrong to say that money/economics/wealth has become Deen of the modern age. A person's success is defined by the job that he/she gets and the wealth he/she accumulates. Today, wealth equals status and power. The whole system is built on it. If we walk past the prominent buildings, we find them to belong to financial industry: banks, insurance firms, money exchanges, stock exchanges and so on. Nearly everyone is in thrall to this system - rich and poor, Muslim and non-Muslim, almost everyone is under the delusion that their livelihood is dependent, somehow, upon the system as it is set up. Almost everyone is worried about his/her future financial stability, the ability to maintain the lifestyle, and means to accumulate the wealth.

People think and worry about money as if it is everything for them. But, in reality, it is the least worrying and worthy thing in the life. For RIZQ is not something which is in any one's hands. Rather, it is solely and only in the hands of our Lord. Allah SWT says in Surah Hud (11), Ayat 6:

In translation (Sahih International):
And there is no (moving) creature on earth but that upon Allah is its provision, and He knows its place of dwelling and place of storage. All is in clear register.

The sustenance of all animals and creatures that Allah SWT provides for is described as RIZQ. Every creature, small or big, whether it lives under the sea (water) or on the land, Allah JJ provides it with its daily sustenance. RIZQ is a very beautiful Arabic word that actually accommodates several related meanings. On hearing this word, RIZQ, we instinctively ‘understand’ what it means. Here RIZQ means ‘daily sustenance and provision’.

Friends,
Describing our sustenance and our provisions, Allah uses the word ‘RIZQ’. It is also mentioned several times in the Quran. For example in Surat Al Baqara (2), Ayat 57, Allah SWT says:

In translation (Sahih International):
And we shaded you with clouds and sent down to you manna and quails, (saying), “Eat from the good things with which We have provided you.” And they wronged Us not – but they were [only] wronging themselves.

In this context, RIZQ can mean everything that Allah SWT has provided us of food and drinks for our sustenance/survival/living.

RIZQ also means our livelihood and wealth and this is probably what we commonly understand as what RIZQ means. For example: When Allah SWT forbids the act of killing one’s children for the fear of poverty. In Surat Al-Anaam, Ayat 151 Allah says:

In translation (Sahih International):
And do not kill your children out of poverty; We will provide (the means) for you {Narzuqukum} and for them.

While Allah asks Prophet SAW to say to people the things that Allah has forbidden. From them, killing children for the fear of RIZQ is also forbidden.

So, these are potential meanings of RIZQ: Sustenance, Provisions, and Wealth. Sometimes, it is also translated as ‘bounties’. In Surat Al-Baqarah (2), Ayat 254, Allah SWT says:

In translation (Sahih International):
O you who have believed, spend from that which We have provided for you before there comes a Day in which there is no exchange and no friendship and no intercession. And the disbelievers – they are the wrongdoers.

Dear friends,
When Abu Musa al-Ash'ari and his people emigrated to Madina, they arrived with their stores and provisions having been completely exhausted, so they sent a man from among them to the Prophet to ask for some food. When the man came to the door of the Prophet and was about to knock, he heard the Prophet reciting the aya mentioned above,
وَمَا مِن دَابَّةٍ فِي ٱلأرْضِ إِلاَّ عَلَى ٱللَّهِ رِزْقُهَا
 "There is no creature on the earth except that Allah undertakes to provide for it.", so he said to himself. "Surely our people are no lower in the eyes of Allah than the beasts", so he went back to them without having spoken to the Prophet and said, 
أبشروا أتاكم الغوث
 “Good news! Help has come!" When they heard that, they thought he must have spoken to the Prophet and the Prophet had promised him something. And while they were speaking with him, two men appeared bearing a huge platter of bread and meat which they set before them. So they ate their fill and then, seeing that so much food was left, they said, 

لو أنا رددنا هذا الطعام إلى رسول الله صلى الله عليه وسلم ليقضي به حاجته
 ‘We must send this food back to the messenger of Allah so he can also eat his fill.’ So they instructed the two men to take it back to the Messenger of Allah. Then, when they came to the Messenger of Allah, thy said to him, 
 يا رسول الله ما رأينا طعاماً أكثر ولا أطيب من طعام أرسلت به
 ‘Messenger of Allah, we have never seen food more plentiful or more delicious than the food you sent us.' The Messenger replied that he had not sent them any food, so they told him they had sent a man from among them to ask him for it. So the Messenger of Allah spoke to the man and when he heard his story, said,
ذلك شيء رزقكموه الله
 ‘That is something Allah provided you with.’ There is no point worrying about rizq, because your rizq is coming to you regardless of what you say and do. Indeed, you could not even escape from it were you to want to. The Prophet said,
 لو أن أحدكم فرّ من رزقه لتبعه كما يتبعه الموت
‘If you were to try to run away from your provision, your provision would come after you just like death.’ There is no point chasing after it, because it is chasing after you. Your provision is waiting for you from before the day you were born, and you will receive it in full in the course of your life.
The Prophet SAW said,
إن نفساً لن تموت حتى تستكمل رزقها،
 “No human being will die until he has received his provision in full.” This is a promise and a guarantee from Allah,
ولا يخلف الله الميعاد
 “Allah never breaks his covenant.” So why worry over something over which you have no control.

So, what is special about RIZQ?
It is very natural for most if not all people to be very motivated and devoted when it comes to maintaining two things: maintaining our lives and maintaining our livelihoods, or our ‘RIZQ’. Maintaining our livelihoods is one of the greatest efforts in our lives. One of the great deal that drives us and motivates us is earning and sustaining a living.

As a human being, it is our innate makeup that Allah has made us like that. Therefore, Allah SWT has established for us the rules that govern the concept of RIZQ. One of the important rules for us (Muslims) is to understand the fundamental concept: Where does this RIZQ come from? Other important rules include: How can we increase the bounties of Allah on us; Is it better for us to be rich/wealthy or not wealthy?; Should we work hard to get more money, or should we work for what is enough?; Is money in itself a good or a bad thing and; Is having more money better or worse for us? These are just a few important and legitimate issues for us to understand.

The first rule of RIZQ in our understanding as Muslims is that it is all solely and wholly in the hands of Allah SWT, and Allah SWT distributes His bounties on whoever Allah SWT chooses. This fundamental understanding can constitute part of the Tawheed as Muslims. Narrated from Ibn Abbass RA, the Hadith emphasizes that Allah SWT is the sole owner and Allah SWT is the sole provider. I present here one ayat from Quran but there are similar reminders and ayahs in the Holy Quran. In Surat Al-Baqarah (2), Ayat 212, Allah SWT says:

In translation (Sahih International):
“And Allah gives provision {yarzuku} to who He will without account (measure)”

This statement emphasizes out two things. First, it is Allah and only Allah SWT has the power to provide. {Wallahu Yarzuku}. Second, In Allah’s wisdom this provision includes everyone without exception. It includes believer and non-believer, Muslim and non-Muslim, male and female, old and young, educated and uneducated, honest and dishonest and so on.

{Yarzuku Ma’n’ Yashao Bi Ghairi Hisaab} “Provides to whom He wishes without account (measure).”

As Muslims, we should be very clear on this as sometimes unknowingly we question the wisdom of Allah SWT (Naoozo Billahi). The bounties of Allah are without any boundaries. In fact, in Surat Al-Baqara (2), Ibrahim Alaihi Salam, as a believer in Allah SWT, and out of his convictions to his belief, Ibrahim AS asks Allah SWT to provide only for the believers. Allah SWT, however, responds and tells us that the provisions from Allah are for all, including the disbelievers. It is not for us to questions this:

In translation (Sahih International):
And [mention] when Ibrahim said, “My Lord make this a secure city and provide its people with fruits – whoever of them believes in Allah and the Last Day.” [Allah] said, “And whoever disbelieves – I will grant him enjoyment for a little; then I will force him to the punishment of the Fire, and wretched is the destination.”

This is a fundamental rule of RIZQ. This sometimes becomes difficult to comprehend when a person comes across someone who is blatant disbeliever or someone who though believes in Allah, but does not live according to the teachings and guidance of Allah SWT, and finds that they are in abundance. This becomes even much more difficult when the wealth is earned through means that Islam has declared Haram. The two temptations are firstly to question the wisdom of Allah by saying ‘why them’ and secondly to be tempted to think ‘why not me’. We must be careful brothers and sisters.

The examples of Haram income for us are plenty but the most obvious ones are for those of us who are prepared to work with ‘Riba’, to work in the ‘alcohol’ trade/industry, to cheat in various ways and so on. It can be hard when one sees how much wealth others have piled up, the luxurious cars they buy, the lavish lifestyles and luxurious houses. Instinctively, one may fall prey to question ‘why is Allah SWT so generous to those who do not believe in Him and to those who disobey Him?’

It is not for us to question the wisdom of Allah. We must force ourselves to understand that ‘RIZQ’ is in the hands of Allah SWT and Allah provides to whom He wills. In Surat Al-Imran (3), Ayat 26, Allah SWT says:

In translation (Sahih International):
Say: “O Allah, Owner of sovereignty, You give sovereignty to whom You will and You take sovereignty away from whom You will. You honor whom You will and You humble who You will. In Your hand is [all] good. Indeed, You are over all things competent.”

[Aqulu quoli hadha wa astaghfirullahi li walakum]


Thursday, July 23, 2015

Delicious Lamb with Nuts, Coconut powder curry

Surprised huh. Yes I also like to cook. It is one of my hobbies which I rarely practice :)

Hearing of the food specially Sindhi biryani, Gosh karhai, Tandoori Chicken, Tarka Daal, Beha basar, Qeemay kay Karelay, Palak Gosht (Lamb Spinach) and what not! All are so delicious. Oh i forgot, be it bengan (Aubergine/Eggplants) ka bhurta or bengan in spanish tapas style are my favorite.

It becomes commonplace if you eat same Pakistani food everyday. So why not take some turkish or iranian taste and mix the tastes of these cultures and innovate a new lamb curry :). I thought so and have innovated a recipe which worked very well for me. I hope that you will also like. I can't bet but am sure, if cooked well, you will be licking your fingers. Enjoy the secret, new and innovative recipe. Give me your feedback in the comments section with the taste and twist you added to recipe while cooking. If possible share the pictures as well.

I prepared it with half kilo meat. You can adjust the recipe according to the amount of meat you want to cook.

Ingredients required:
Boneless Lamb cut in middle sized cubes            1/2 Kg
Peanuts (without shells)                                        3/4 tea cup
Sesame seeds                                                        3 table spoons
Khopra (Coconut)                                                 3/4 or 1 full tea cup
Yoghurt                                                                 1 tea cup
Jeera (Zeera) whole                                               2 table spoons
Onions Medium Sized                                          2 finely chopped
Ginger and Garlic Paste                                        2 table spoons
Medium sized tomatoes                                        2
Gur (Solid brown sugar)                                       piece of the size of a lemon
Imli (Tamrind)                                                      1/2 tea cup (without seeds or paste)
Green Chillies                                                       4/5
Red chilli powder (preferrably beaten chili)        2 table spoons
Whole garam masala (includes dar chini, pata, black cardamom, long, kalongi, and some other i dont know the names :))
Dhaniya (Corriander seeds)                                 Kutta hoa (not the powder; you can use if not available)
Curry leaves                                                         5-6
Turmeric powder                                                  a pinch or half tea spoon
Methi                                                                    1 table spoon
Oil
Salt

Before you start this recipe, you should have kept lamb meat marinated in some karahi masalah (not too much) just a little bit. Marinate it for at least 1 hour.
Before reading recipe (read Step 7 and you can already do that step before step 1 if you have marinated meat)

Recipe:
Step 1: Add three table spoons of oil in frying pan. Add peanuts, coconut khopra, sesame seeds. Fry them till they are slightly red.
Step 2: Add yoghurt keep frying them for another 3 mins so yogurt is completely mixed.
Step 3: Blend the mixture by adding 1/4 cup of water and keep it aside.
Step 4: In yet another frying pan, fry finely chopped onions till they are light brown. Add all whole garam masalas, ginger garlic paste, kutti hoi mirch, zeera, turmeric powder, curry leaves. Fry them till they give a good smell and are brownish/pinkish.
Step 5: Add finely chopped tomatoes, methi, salt, imli paste and gur. Cook them for 5 mins or so.
Step 6: Mix blended paste which was kept aside (refer step 3). Cook till the paste is fine.
Step 7: Boil the meat till it is tender. You can do this step in the beginning. Cook till most of the water is boiled away. Do not throw the water. Water contains the actual meat taste.
Step 8: Add meat in the paste/curry already made in Step 6. Cook this for another 15-20 minutes on a light stove fire.
Step 9: Garnish the remaining with some green herbs. :)

Lekker! (Lekker means delicious in dutch)
Smakelijk (Enjoy the food in dutch).

Serve it with naan bread!

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Bootstrap Confidence

Bootstrap Confidence:

Bootstrap confidence was a term used today by Janet Yellen, the Chairwoman of the Federal Reserve while reporting to the US Congress.

Senator Robert Mendendez asked her about the chance that raising interest rates will boost confidence and thus would act as a growth catalyst. She responded:

"It's fair to say that when we begin to raise our target for the federal funds rate it will be because we're confident about the recovery and we're reasonably confident that inflation will move back toward our 2% objective over time, but that confidence will reside in real improvements that we see in the underlying conditions in households and businesses." ... "be attempting to somehow bootstrap an improvement that is purely occurring from a confidence effect that comes from our raising rates".

By bootstrapping confidence she means the Fed can't make the economy better by bluffing by raising interest rates.