Ingredients for Predicting Future

Following are the ingredients for predicting future trends. But don't be fooled by randomness. Even when you got all (some) of the following ingredients, your predictions would remain only predictions. Reality or actual future events may be different. So, a model you might design may not necessarily be a perfect model. As some quant once said, all models are not perfect, some models predict better than others. So believe in yourself and be ready to adjust your models if the trends change or new things emerge in the market. Good luck!

1. Best and the Brightest
Hunt out the best mathematicians, scientists, finance, quantitative and computer experts to design the best models and trading systems.

2. Data
Both the data sample period and varied data related to various elements depending upon the nature of model, for example weather, social media, news and other real world (financial and non-financial) data sets.

3. Computing Power
A huge power required to find correlations or patterns in the data. So one would need to build large distributed computing systems to find correlations and patters quickly.

4. High-end Mathematics
Latest trends in mathematics to find new ways of extracting patterns.

5. Trading Optimization
To be successful quant trader, the real task is to find a way to optimize trading ideas using big data.

Advice to his son by Imam Ahmed (Rahimullah)

How one of our pious predecessors interacted with an ayah from the Quran. This is a story about Imam Ahmed (Rahimullah) the way he dealt with a man who was interrupting his halaka, cursing him, trying to get him to respond in a like manner and Imam Ahmed (Rahimullah) took the high road. Imagine a man walking into halaka and starts insulting, but let's not forget that Imam Ahmed (Rahimullah) was tortured for his great portion of his adult life. He was tortured in ways that many of us today can not even imagine. All of his skin was taken off from his back, was flogged and was attempted to be killed. But Imam Ahmed (Rahimullah), by the grace of Allah, eventually came out of that and entire Muslim world at that time sided with him against his oppressors, and his last a few years were peaceful and calm. All of these people who used to torture him in his prison, guards and people who cursed him and so on, constantly used to come to him and seek his forgiveness. Saleh, the son of Imam Ahmed (Rahimullah) says that his father forgave each and every single person who tortured him. SubhanAllah! Each and every single time, a person came to him and said, 'I used to beat you.', and would be full of tears, and then ask him, 'please forgive me'. On that, Imam Ahmed (Rahimullah) will just forgive them. Anytime, if someone came and said we back-bited you, Imam Ahmed (Rahimullah) would forgive them. Saleh says that I asked my father, 'What about those who died before they could seek your forgiveness?' Imam Ahmed (Rahimullah) said, 'I have forgiven each and every single deceased person for the beatings that they used to inflict upon me'. So Saleh said, 'I understand when people come to you and seek forgiveness from you, you should forgive. But those people never even sought forgiveness from you.' Imam Ahmed (Rahimullah) said, 'Listen O my son!, Allah SWT says in Surah Ash-Shuraa (42) Ayat (40): 

Sahih International

'And the retribution for an evil act is an evil one like it, but whoever pardons and makes reconciliation - his reward is [due] from Allah . Indeed, He does not like wrongdoers.'

'Whoever forgives and pardons, his reward is upon Allah SWT'.

He said, 'When I came across this ayah, I came across a narration from Imam Hasan al-Basri (Rahimullah). Imam Hasan al-Basri (Rahimullah) narrates, 'When the day of judgement comes, all of the Ummahs, all of the nations will be on their knees in front of Allah SWT. Allah will say, "Don't stand up, unless I owe you some 'ajar'." No one would stand except for those that used to forgive in part in this world.'. 

Imam Ahmed (Rahimullah) said, 'I want to be one of those people who stand up when everyone is on their knees.' He says, 'I have forgiven all of those people who have died for what they did to me.' He further says, 'What is upon a man is to make sure that Allah will not punish anyone on the day of judgement because of him.'

SubhanaAllah. Look at the heart of gold. Usually a person that is subjected to that much torture, in terms of solitary confinement and torture for over a decade. Usually a person like that will be bitter. Look at the heart of gold of Imam Ahmed (Rahimullah). He is telling his son, what you want on the day of judgement is that no one is going to be punished on your behalf. You do not want Allah SWT to punish anyone on your behalf. In fact you want to be one of those people who stands up and Allah SWT gives the special reward. 

We ask Allah SWT to give us those big hearts and to allow us to forgive and pardon. Ameen. Even when people do not seek forgiveness we should ask Allah SWT to allow us to do that may be not because they would deserve it but because we want the mercy of Allah SWT.

(Taken from the lecture/video of Sheikh Omar Suleiman).